Forecasters say El Niño is now officially over and there’s a 75% chance of a La Niña forming. But “the real story is the Godzilla drought,” a NASA climatologist said.
Boat docks sit empty on dry land, as Folsom Lake reservoir near Sacramento on Sep. 17, 2015.
Mark Ralston / AFP / Getty Images
The giant El Niño that fueled flooding rains in Texas this year but failed to make a big dent in California's extreme drought, was declared dead Thursday, opening the door to a La Niña and extended period of dryness in the West.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced the latest El Niño event had come to an end, saying "we're sticking a fork in this El Niño and calling it done." According to NOAA forecasters, the unusually warm pool of water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean had "mostly returned to normal by the end of May."
The El Niño was born in 2014, NASA climatologist Bill Patzert told BuzzFeed News. Patzert, who coined the nickname "Godzilla El Niño," said it "came early, it was immense, and it was quite long lasting."
Droughts in India and Africa, recent flooding in Texas, and an earlier-than-usual tornado season in the Plains states were among the significant effects of the El Niño, he said.
The warming of the Pacific also contributed to massive coral bleaching events, NOAA coral reef watch coordinator Mark Eakin told the Associated Press.
The question now is if sea surface temperatures will swing back in the other direction and become cooler than normal, leading to a La Niña. According to NOAA, there is now a 65% chance of a La Niña by July, and a 75% chance by the fall.
A graphic compares sea surface temperatures during current and past El Niño events.
NOAA / Via climate.gov
Patzert agreed that a La Niña event was likely, but with warm water still lingering in the Pacific, suggested it was still too early to be certain what would happen.
"At this point this El Niño is leaving us reluctantly," he said. "Our future is a little up in the air here."
from BuzzFeed - USNews http://ift.tt/1VPtaA7
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